Nashville SC will put a 19-match unbeaten run in the Music City on the line this weekend as they host Real Salt Lake at GEODIS Park on Sunday.
In their first encounter at their new 30,000 seat venue, a capacity crowd saw the Boys in Gold equalise with a late penalty, drawing the Philadelphia Union 1-1, while RSL ended a five-match winless run in Major League Soccer by edging the Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0.
Match preview
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The location may be different, but the result was something which we have become accustomed to seeing as Nashville found a way to earn another point on home soil last week.
A year ago, this team led the league in draws with 18, and after nine encounters this season, they have the same number of wins, losses and ties (three).
Currently tied with the Colorado Rapids and Houston Dynamo for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference on 12 points, Gary Smith knows that his side have an opportunity to climb up the table in the weeks to come, with 16 of their remaining 25 regular-season encounters taking place in their new home.
Since the start of April, the Boys in Gold have only suffered one defeat, and this month has always been good to them since entering the league in 2020, holding an all-time record of two wins and four draws in May.
Nashville are very much a low-risk side that do not take unnecessary chances going forward, despite having some outstanding individual quality in the attacking third.
At the moment, the club seem to be missing the presence of a solid and versatile fullback on the right-hand side, as the departure of Alistair Johnston to CF Montreal has left them exposed on that side of the field.
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A difficult month for Claret Cobalt offensively in April ended positively as they earned a surprise win over the Galaxy.
That victory kept them in a top-five position in the Western Conference and ended a three-game scoring drought in all competitions despite having only 35% of the possession.
The result went their way, though Pablo Mastroeni knows that they only narrowly escaped when a late equaliser by Dejan Joveljic was controversially ruled out by VAR for offside.
After conceding to New York City FC six times, we have seen them play with a stingier defensive shape, posting consecutive clean sheets domestically, with their back four looking a lot more in sync in recent matches.
Their movement with the ball going forward has been average at best, as their strikers are not getting the kind of service needed to have quality scoring opportunities.
Claret and Cobalt like to use the width of the field, utilising their wing-backs in the attack with crosses, though at times, they have been caught out of position and made it too easy for opposing teams to counter and expose that open space.
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Team News
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Randall Leal rescued a point for Nashville in their inaugural match at GEODIS Park, beating Union keeper Andre Blake from the penalty spot late in the game, while Sean Davis led the team in passing percentage at 91.2% and Daniel Lovitz had the most chances created with three.
Teal Bunbury remains sidelined due to an injured knee, Robert Castellanos is still recovering from right ankle surgery and Irakoze Donasiyano has a left thigh injury.
Late last week, the club officially signed Hany Mukhtar and Walker Zimmerman to contract extensions through until the 2025 season, with their American centre-back being elevated to the status of Designated Player.
RSL goalkeeper Zac MacMath has got a lot more support from his defence in recent matches, posting back-to-back clean sheets in MLS play and Marcelo Silva netted the only goal in their victory against the Galaxy.
Earlier this week before the end of the Primary Transfer Window, Salt Lake signed forward Jefferson Savarino from Brasileiro Serie A champions Atletico Mineiro.
Zack Farnsworth and Bret Halsey missed their previous encounter because of ankle issues, Johan Kappelhof has a calf strain, Jonathan Menendez is dealing with a left calf problem and Damir Kreilach was unavailable last week due to a back injury.
Jaziel Orozco missed their previous match after being called up to the Under-20 US men's national team, while Sergio Cordova took a knock in the first half and had to be replaced by Rubio Rubin.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Maher, Zimmerman, Romney; Muyl, McCarty, Godoy, Lovitz; Leal, Mukhtar; Sapong
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
MacMath; Herrera, Glad, Silva, Brody; Chang, Caldwell, Ruiz, Meram; Rubin, Wood
We say: Nashville SC 1-0 Real Salt Lake
RSL won the opening fixture between these sides in 2022 (2-1), but this is a different Nashville team who seem to be finding their footing, and when they are on, they are one of the most challenging sides to penetrate.
Claret and Cobalt have failed to score in four road fixtures this year and are still lacking a creative presence in the middle of the field.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 55.3%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 21.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Real Salt Lake win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.
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Top tip
Joel Lefevre
