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Morocco national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Round of 16
Jan 25, 2022 at 7pm UK
 
Malawi national football team

Morocco
2 - 1
Malawi

En-Nesyri (45+2'), Hakimi (70')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Mhango (7')
Madinga (33'), Sanudi (60'), Mhango (69')

Preview: Morocco vs. Malawi - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Morocco and Malawi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having enjoyed an unbeaten group-stage run, Morocco lock horns with Malawi in the round of 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations at the Ahmadou Ahidjo Stadium on Tuesday.

The Flames, meanwhile, head into the knockout stages as one of the four best third-placed sides in the group stages after picking up four points from three games.


Match preview

Morocco's Sofiane Boufal celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 18, 2022© Reuters

Morocco will be delighted by their start to the Africa Cup of Nations and will feel confident in their chances of going all the way to clinch their third continental title, having made it through to the round of 16 following an almost perfect run in the group stages.

The Atlas Lions, who enjoyed an unbeaten journey in the qualifiers, kicked off their campaign with a hard-earned win over a resilient Ghana side on January 10, when Sofiane Boufal struck the winner in the 83rd minute.

This was followed by a more comfortable 2-0 victory over Comoros at the Ahmadou Ahidjo Stadium four days later courtesy of goals in either half from Selim Amallah and AZ Alkmaar forward Zakaria Aboukhlal.

However, Vahid Halilhodzic's side were denied their third win on the bounce and a 100% record in the group stages last time out when they were held to a thrilling 2-2 draw by a dogged Gabon side.

In an end-to-end affair, the Panthers went in front twice in the game through Jim Allevinah and an own goal from defender Nayef Aguerd, but Sofiane and Achraf Hakimi came up trumps for Morocco as they restored parity on each occasion.

Morocco's Sofiane Boufal celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 10, 2022© Reuters

Morocco, who have now made it to the knockout stages for the third consecutive time, now have 14 wins from their last 15 games in all competitions — a run which has also seen them progress to the playoffs of the 2022 FIFA World Cup where they face Congo DR over two legs.

Malawi, on the other hand, were denied a dream start to their Africa Cup of Nations campaign as they fell to an opening-day 1-0 loss to Guinea on January 10.

However, the Flames bounced back in their subsequent group outing as they came from behind to secure a 2-1 victory over Zimbabwe courtesy of a brace from Orlando Pirates forward Gabadinho Mhango.

Malawi finally wrapped things up in the group stages with an uneventful goalless draw with Senegal last time out which saw them finish third in Group B and secure a place in the last 16 as one of the four best third-placed sides.

Morocco Africa Cup of Nations form:
  • W
  • W
  • D

Morocco form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

Malawi Africa Cup of Nations form:
  • L
  • W
  • D

Malawi form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D


Team News

Morocco's Selim Amallah celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 14, 2022© Reuters

Morocco head into the knockout stages as proper contenders to go all the way following a solid run in the group stages and we expect Halilhodzic to name a familiar side from the opening three matches.

At the defensive end of the pitch, we expect to see a back four of Hakimi, Aguerd, Romain Saiss and Adam Masina shielding Sevilla's Bono in goal.

Further up the pitch, Sofyan Amrabat has started each of the Atlas Lions' last two games and we expect to see the Fiorentina man at the centre of the park alongside 21-year-old Azzeddine Ounahi.

Boufal, who has two goals to his name at the tournament, should make the XI once again, starting being the attacking duo of Youssef En-Nesyri and Ayoub El Kaabi.

However, Ilias Chair is a major doubt for Morocco after the Queens Park Rangers man was forced off the pitch just 30 minutes into the game against Gabon through injury.

On the other hand, Malawi will take to the pitch without Limbikani Mzava, who missed the group finale against Senegal after picking up an injury in the game against Zimbabwe on January 14.

Other than that, there should be no absentees for the Flames as they boast a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns, giving Marinica the luxury of a relatively full strength squad once again.

Morocco possible starting lineup:
Bono; Hakimi, Saiss, Aguerd, Masina; Amrabat, Ounahi, Barkok; Boufal, En-Nesyri, El Kaabi

Malawi possible starting lineup:
Kakhobwe; Chembezi, Chaziya, Chirwa; Madinga, Banda, Idana, Sanudi; Mhango; Mbulu, Muyaba


SM words green background

We say: Morocco 2-0 Malawi

Morocco head into the knockout stages on the back of a fine group-stage run and will look to stamp their name as genuine title contenders. They boast the needed quality and experience at this stage of the competition and we are backing them to come away with the win in regular time on Tuesday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 63.51%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 14.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morocco would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Morocco vs Malawi

Morocco
81.4%
Draw
7.1%
Malawi
11.4%
140
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Equatorial Guinea flag Eq Guinea32107
Q Nigeria Nigeria32107
Q Cote D'Ivoire flag Ivory Coast31023
4 Guinea-Bissau flag Guinea-Bissau30030

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Cape Verde flag Cape Verde32107
Q Egypt Egypt30303
3 Ghana flag Ghana30212
4 Mozambique flag Mozambique30212

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Senegal flag Senegal33009
Q Guinea flag Guinea31114
Q Cameroon flag Cameroon31114
4 Gambia flag Gambia30030

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Angola Angola32107
Q Burkina Faso flag Burkina Faso31114
Q Mauritania flag Mauritania31023
4 Algeria Algeria30212

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Mali flag Mali31205
Q South Africa South Africa31114
Q Namibia Namibia31114
4 Tunisia Tunisia30212

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Morocco Morocco32107
Q DR Congo flag Congo DR30303
3 Tanzania flag Tanzania30212
4 Zambia flag Zambia30212


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