Moreirense square up against Vitoria de Guimaraes in Saturday's Primeira Liga match with both sides looking to bounce back following defeats at the hands of Porto in their last league games.
The home side head into this match sitting just outside the top half of the table, whereas the visitors are currently in the European places.
Match preview
Moreirense have endured a mixed start to the 2020-21 season, winning just three of their opening 12 league games, including only one of their last seven.
That poor form continued against Porto last time out as goals by Sergio Oliveira, Toni Martinez and Evanilson condemned them to their fifth defeat of the season in the league.
Just as they have a shortage of wins, the same could be said of their goalscoring exploits. They are the second-lowest scorers in the league having netted just three goals in their last seven league matches and, in doing so, drawing blanks on four occasions.
When it comes to their previous meetings with the opposition, they have also struggled with only one victory in their last six meetings, the most recent of which ended in a 1-1 draw.
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The visitors gave a better account of themselves in their previous match but still suffered a narrow 3-2 defeat; the manner in which they played, however, will give them a further confidence boost.
Their fourth defeat of the season left the away side in fifth position and increased the pressure to hold onto the last European place, with Pacos de Ferreira now level on points.
However, Vitoria do now boast a game in hand over the teams around them in the table due to their last match being postponed, and victory on Saturday could close the gap on fourth-placed Braga to only a single point.
Despite the minor blip, they have been in great form having racked up an impressive six victories in their last nine league matches.
The manner in which they achieved those wins makes for some reading too, with Joao Henriques's side scoring 11 goals in the process, including a huge 4-0 victory over Santa Clara
Just as they have been impressive going forward, at the back they have been equally as good, boasting the third-best defensive record in the league.
Moreirense Primeira Liga form: LLDDWL
Moreirense form (all competitions): LDWDWL
Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form: WLWWWL
Vitoria de Guimaraes form (all competitions): WWWLWL
Team News
Vitor Campelos has several injuries to deal with as Derik Lacerda, Sori Mane and Andre Luis are all absent.
Equally, Pedro Nuno and Pedro Amador are both ruled out having suffered cruciate ligament ruptures.
The hosts could line up in a 5-4-1 formation.
The visitors also have some fitness concerns, including Joseph Amoah and Silvio, who are both out with muscle injuries.
Mikel Agu, Alhassan Wakaso and Matheus Mascarenhas are out with knee injuries.
Yann Aurel Bisseck is also out, while Lyle Foster is absent due to coronavirus.
The away side could start in a 4-3-3.
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Figueiredo, Vitoria, Pacheco, Rosic, D'Alberto; Pires, Soares, Soares, Yan; Santos
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Mensah, Mumin, Fernandes, Sacko; Andre, Pepelu, Almeida; Rochinha, Estupinan, Quaresma
We say: Moreirense 1-2 Vitoria de Guimaraes
We expect this to be a close contest, but Vitoria de Guimaraes should come out as victors.
Moreirense have struggled to win of late in the league, and the visitors should have too much for them. Vitoria de Guimaraes are in great form and they should walk away with all three points.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 47.7%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 24.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.56%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
