Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 56.49%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 19.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Moreirense |
| 56.49% | 24.4% | 19.11% |
| Both teams to score 46.21% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.65% | 54.35% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.27% | 75.73% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.87% | 19.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.24% | 50.76% |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.14% | 42.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.83% | 79.17% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 13.55% 2-0 @ 11.21% 2-1 @ 9.5% 3-0 @ 6.18% 3-1 @ 5.24% 4-0 @ 2.56% 3-2 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 2.17% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.94% Total : 56.48% | 1-1 @ 11.48% 0-0 @ 8.2% 2-2 @ 4.03% Other @ 0.69% Total : 24.39% | 0-1 @ 6.95% 1-2 @ 4.87% 0-2 @ 2.94% 1-3 @ 1.38% 2-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.85% Total : 19.11% |