Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 61.84%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.78%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Belenenses | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 16.11% | 22.05% | 61.84% |
| Both teams to score 47.49% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.34% | 49.66% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.32% | 71.68% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.23% | 43.77% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.06% | 79.93% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.46% | 15.54% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.53% | 44.47% |
| Score Analysis |
| Belenenses | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 5.62% 2-1 @ 4.32% 2-0 @ 2.32% 3-1 @ 1.19% 3-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.55% Total : 16.11% | 1-1 @ 10.46% 0-0 @ 6.8% 2-2 @ 4.02% Other @ 0.76% Total : 22.04% | 0-1 @ 12.66% 0-2 @ 11.78% 1-2 @ 9.74% 0-3 @ 7.32% 1-3 @ 6.04% 0-4 @ 3.41% 1-4 @ 2.81% 2-3 @ 2.5% 0-5 @ 1.27% 2-4 @ 1.16% 1-5 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.1% Total : 61.83% |