Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 28.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 0-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.