Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 57.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 20.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Kansas City would win this match.