Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 53.54%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 23.49% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.