Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 49.22%. A win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Vancouver Whitecaps win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.