Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 52.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.