Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for CF Montreal in this match.