Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 42.87% | 25.31% | 31.82% |
| Both teams to score 55.51% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.93% | 48.07% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.76% | 70.24% |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.64% | 22.36% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.14% | 55.86% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.72% | 64.28% |
| Score Analysis |
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 9.55% 2-1 @ 8.97% 2-0 @ 7.15% 3-1 @ 4.48% 3-0 @ 3.57% 3-2 @ 2.81% 4-1 @ 1.68% 4-0 @ 1.34% 4-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.27% Total : 42.87% | 1-1 @ 11.98% 0-0 @ 6.37% 2-2 @ 5.63% 3-3 @ 1.18% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 8% 1-2 @ 7.52% 0-2 @ 5.02% 1-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 2.1% 1-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.68% Total : 31.82% |