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Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer
Nov 20, 2021 at 7.30pm UK
Subaru Park
New York Red Bulls

Philadelphia
1 - 0
NY Red Bulls

Glesnes (120+3')
Andres Martinez (74')
FT
(aet)

Yearwood (15'), Gutman (51'), Edwards (52'), Reyes (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Philadelphia Union and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Round one of the Eastern Conference playoffs for the MLS Cup begins on Saturday, when New York Red Bulls travel to Subaru Park where they will face Philadelphia Union. The hosts finished the regular season in second spot, six points better off than this weekend's visitors, who secured their seventh-place finish by one point.

Match preview

Jim Curtin's side finished the regular season by recording a 1-1 draw against New York City FC, as Valentin Castellanos cancelled out Kacper Przybylko's opener for Philadelphia. That draw meant that Union completed the Eastern Conference campaign unbeaten in four outings, helping them finish above Nashville and guarantee themselves a home tie for round one in the playoffs. Philadelphia have been much stronger in Pennsylvania than they have been on their travels this season, winning eight more games at home and only tasting defeat three times on their own patch. In contrast, New York Red Bulls only won five of their 17 away games and conceded double the amount of goals on their travels than they did so at home, suggesting that the hosts have an advantage on Saturday. Union were knocked out of the playoffs at the first attempt last year, being beaten by New England Revolution in the first round, so they will be looking to better that performance this time around. The Red Bulls also finished the regular season with a 1-1 draw, coming against fellow playoff rivals Nashville earlier this month, when Fabio's early strike for New York was cancelled out by Hany Mukhtar's 16th goal of the campaign. After an irregular start to the league, Gerhard Struber's side found their stride and are currently on a run of just one defeat in their last 12 outings. Like their hosts on Saturday, New York Red Bulls too were knocked out of the playoffs in round one last season, closely missing out to Columbus Crew. The year prior to that defeat, Philadelphia met New York Red Bulls in this round of the competition, and Union came out on top in 2019 winning a tight affair 4-3 after extra time. Another close encounter is expected this weekend, as the last two meetings between these sides ended in 1-1 draws, with the first game between Union and Red Bulls this season ending in a narrow victory for Curtin's team.
Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D

Team News

Left-back Kai Wagner is suspended for this match after picking up his eighth yellow card of the season in the final game against New York City two weeks ago. Ilsinho and Sergio Santos will remain sidelined for Philadelphia with the attacking duo both suffering from muscle injuries, but they could feature later in the playoffs if their teammates can progress. The hosts midfield three is likely to be made up from Leon Flach, Jose Andres Martinez and Alejandro Bedoya, while Przybylko will lead the line. New York Red Bulls also have suspension issues, as midfielder Sean Davis will be forced to sit out on Saturday and he is likely to be a big miss having started started all 34 of Red Bulls' games this season. Aaron Long continued to be absent through injury, but for certain Struber will set his team up in a 3-4-3 formation with Andrew Gutman, Sean Nealis and Andres Reyes making up the back line. Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup: Blake; Powell, Elliott, Glesnes, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Monteiro, Przybylko, Aaronson New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup: Miguel; Gutman, Nealis, Reyes; Tolkin, Amaya, Yearwood, Edwards; Clark, Fabio, Casseres

We say: Philadelphia Union 2-1 New York Red Bulls

With this encounter being a one-legged tie it is expected to be a cagey affair and the scoreline is likely to remain close throughout the match. The past meetings between these two teams this campaign also suggests that one team will not run away with the victory, but the hosts should be confident from their second-placed finish in the regular season.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 48%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 25.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (8.6%).

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew York Red Bulls
48%26.48%25.52%
Both teams to score 47.94%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.97%56.03%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.89%77.12%
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.63%23.37%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.65%57.35%
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.56%37.44%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.78%74.22%
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 48%
    New York Red Bulls 25.52%
    Draw 26.48%
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew York Red Bulls
1-0 @ 12.72%
2-0 @ 9.25%
2-1 @ 9.08%
3-0 @ 4.48%
3-1 @ 4.4%
3-2 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 1.63%
4-1 @ 1.6%
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 48%
1-1 @ 12.49%
0-0 @ 8.75%
2-2 @ 4.46%
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 26.48%
0-1 @ 8.6%
1-2 @ 6.14%
0-2 @ 4.22%
1-3 @ 2.01%
2-3 @ 1.46%
0-3 @ 1.38%
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 25.52%

How you voted: Philadelphia vs NY Red Bulls

Philadelphia Union
77.8%
Draw
16.7%
New York Red Bulls
5.6%
18
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2021 12.30am
Gameweek 36
NY Red Bulls
1-1
Philadelphia
Fernandez (37')
Duncan (52'), Reyes (65')
Santos (17')
Andres Martinez (45'), Wagner (85'), Blake (86'), Elliott (88')
Jul 9, 2021 1am
Gameweek 15
NY Red Bulls
1-1
Philadelphia
Klimala (60' pen.)
Yearwood (45+2'), Duncan (90+7')
Santos (85')
Mbaizo (42'), Monteiro (90+7')
Matthew (57')
May 16, 2021 12.30am
Sep 27, 2020 10.30pm
Sep 7, 2020 12am
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami34228479493074
2Columbus Crew34199672403266
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati341851158481059
4Orlando City34157125950952
5Charlotte FCCharlotte FC34149114637951
6New York City FCNY City34148125449550
7New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls34111495550547
8CF MontrealMontreal341110134864-1643
9Atlanta UnitedAtlanta341010144649-340
10DC United341010145270-1840
11Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia34910156255737
12Toronto34114194061-2137
13Nashville SCNashville3499163854-1636
14New England RevolutionNew England3494213774-3731
15Chicago Fire3479184062-2230

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Los Angeles FCLos Angeles34197863432064
2Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy34197869501964
3Real Salt LakeSalt Lake341611765481759
4Seattle SoundersSeattle34169951351657
5Houston DynamoHouston34159104739854
6Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd34157125849952
7Colorado RapidsColorado34155146160150
8Portland TimbersPortland341211116556947
9Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver34138135249347
10Austin FCAustin34119143948-942
11Dallas34118155456-241
12St Louis City34813135063-1337
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas3487195166-1531
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes3463254178-3721


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