Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 48%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 25.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (8.6%).