Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.