Major League Soccer

May 18, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Allianz Field

Minnesota Utd
3 - 0
St Louis City

Oluwaseyi (33', 33'), Pereyra (62', 62'), Gressel (78', 78')
Pereyra (3'), Pereyra (3')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Baumgartl (11'), Baumgartl (11')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's MLS clash between Minnesota United and St Louis City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Minnesota United

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Houston 2-0 Minnesota Utd
Thursday, May 15 at 1.30am in MLS Playoffs

Goals
for

St Louis City

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: St Louis City 2-2 Kansas
Thursday, May 15 at 1.45am in MLS Playoffs

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 68.22%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 13.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.

Result
Minnesota United	Draw	St Louis City
68.22% ( -0.03)	18.08% ( 0.02)	13.7% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 54.78% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.04% (

-0.06)

36.96% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.86% (

-0.06)

59.14% (

0.06)

Minnesota United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.11% (

-0.02)

9.89% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.23% (

-0.06)

32.77% (

0.05)

St Louis City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.79% (

-0.02)

39.2% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.09% (

-0.02)

75.91% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Minnesota United 68.21%

St Louis City 13.7%

Draw 18.08%

Minnesota United	Draw	St Louis City
2-0 @ 10.37% 2-1 @ 9.72% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.14% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.03% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 4.07% Total : 68.21%	1-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.55% 0-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.08%	1-2 @ 3.93% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.63% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.7% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 1.78% Total : 13.7%