Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 46.87%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 0-1 (7.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.