Major League Soccer

Apr 6, 2025 at 2am UK

BBVA Compass Stadium

Houston
1 - 0
Los Angeles

McGlynn (57', 57')
Ponce (16'), Ponce (16'), McGlynn (24'), McGlynn (24'), Kowalczyk (75'), Kowalczyk (75')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Martinez (30'), Martinez (30'), Saldana (61'), Saldana (61'), Segura (74'), Segura (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's MLS Playoffs clash between Houston Dynamo and Los Angeles FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions

Last Game: Portland 3-1 Houston
Monday, March 31 at 12am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Los Angeles FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Los Angeles 1-0 Inter Miami
Thursday, April 3 at 4.30am in CONCACAF Champions League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Los Angeles FC had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Los Angeles FC win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.

Result
Houston Dynamo	Draw	Los Angeles FC
46.95% ( -0.34)	23.94% ( -0.06)	29.1% ( 0.41)

Both teams to score 58.71% (

0.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.78% (

0.55)

43.22% (

-0.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.38% (

0.54)

65.62% (

-0.53)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.42% (

0.08)

18.58% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.14% (

0.13)

49.86% (

-0.12)

Los Angeles FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.11% (

0.56)

27.89% (

-0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.5% (

0.71)

63.5% (

-0.71)

Score Analysis

Houston Dynamo 46.95%

Los Angeles FC 29.11%

Draw 23.93%

Houston Dynamo	Draw	Los Angeles FC
2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 5.26% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.43% Total : 46.95%	1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.93%	1-2 @ 7.11% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.81% Total : 29.11%