Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 59.68%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 20.79% and a draw had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.25%) and 3-1 (7.18%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (5.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.