Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 46.87%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.