Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 55.9%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 20.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 0-1 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.