Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 36.92%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (5.97%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-0 (9.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.