Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 52.7%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 0-1 (7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.