Metz play host to Brest on Sunday afternoon knowing that they realistically need all three points to retain hope of avoiding relegation from Ligue 1.
At a time when the home side sit at the bottom of the top-flight standings, Brest have recently moved into 12th position and have no lingering concerns of dropping down to the second tier.
Match preview
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With Lorient one of the teams above them who they could potentially catch, Metz went into the fixture between the two clubs in midweek knowing that maximum points had the potential to change their season.
However, a last-gasp goal from Dango Ouattara secured a huge victory for Lorient, leaving Metz eight points adrift of safety with just five matches remaining.
Already on a 12-game winless streak, collecting at least three wins during the run-in appears highly unlikely, particularly with meetings with Lyon and Paris Saint-Germain still to come.
Nevertheless, Frederic Antonetti will insist that his players will continuing fighting for a miracle, and that will only be possible if they can post their first success in January.
Wednesday's game was the first time in five outings that they have failed to find the back of the net, although you have to go all the way back to December 12 for the last time that they netted more than once in a match.
While Metz finds themselves under pressure ahead of this contest, Brest have reached a stage where they can relax after moving 11 points clear of the drop zone.
To reach that point, Michel Der Zakarian's side have claimed seven points from a possible 12, a run which has included an excellent 2-1 win over Lyon.
Their more illustrious opponents had the momentum when they equalised in the 72nd minute on Wednesday night, but Irvin Cardona scored two minutes later to take Brest past the 40-point mark.
Sitting within six points of ninth-placed Lille, Der Zakarian will want his team to go all out for their best-ever finish in the top flight, something which should be achievable given a favourable run-in.
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Team News
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After only losing out to a late goal in midweek, Antonetti may be prepared to stick with the Metz XI which started at Lorient.
However, Ibrahim Amadou's place in the team is in doubt after he was withdrawn at half time, while Pape Sarr is a more attack-minded alternative to Kevin N'Doram.
Although Jemerson's error contributed to Lorient's winner, the Brazilian should retain his place in the back three.
Having scored Brest's winner just 18 minutes after his introduction as a substitute, Cardona will expect to be recalled on the left flank, with Franck Honorat being switched to the right.
With this game not being played until the Sunday, that could prove to be the solitary change made by Der Zakarian who will want to build on the win over Lyon.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Jemerson, Kouyate, Amadou; Mikelbrencis, Traore, Sarr, Pajot, Delaine; Ze, De Preville
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Chardonnet, Brassier, Duverne; Honorat, Belkebla, Lasne, Cardona; Mounie, Satriano
We say: Metz 1-2 Brest
Having failed to win several matches against direct rivals, Metz are effectively at the point of no return, and they will need to play on the front foot on Sunday. Nevertheless, Brest are seemingly ending the campaign on a high, and we are backing the visitors to run out the victors in this contest.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 43.12%. A win for Metz had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Brest in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Brest.
