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Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 27
Feb 28, 2021 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Lyon

Marseille
1 - 1
Lyon

Milik (44' pen.)
Kamara (64'), Payet (78'), Gonzalez (81'), Gueye (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Toko Ekambi (21')
Paqueta (42'), Mendes (78'), Depay (81')
Paqueta (71')

Preview: Marseille vs. Lyon - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The 118th Choc des Olympiques takes place at the Orange Velodrome on Sunday evening as Marseille do battle with fierce rivals Lyon.

The two giants of the French game are enduring contrasting campaigns, though, with Lyon firmly in the mix with the title-chasing bunch while the hosts only have a slim chance of qualifying for Europe now.


Match preview

Marseille's Nemanja Radonjic celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Nasser Larguet has managed to get Marseille somewhat back on track since taking over from Andre Villas-Boas, but if recent reports are anything to go by, the 62-year-old will not be in the Olympiens dugout for much longer.

A man who is regarded as one of Marcelo Bielsa's disciples, Jorge Sampaoli, is reportedly set to take the reins at Marseille in the coming days, and if he is to emulate the playing style of the current Leeds United manager, then the Orange Velodrome faithful can look forward to an unbridled commitment to attack under the ex-Atletico Mineiro boss.

Les Olympiens are certainly crying out for answers in the final third despite managing to put three past Nice last week, as they followed up that long-awaited triumph with a 1-1 draw away at Nantes, who struck first through Ludovic Blas before Dimitri Payet rescued a point for 10-man Marseille.

This weekend's hosts have managed to string together a four-game unbeaten run across all competitions this month, but with a measly two wins to boast from their last 13 outings in Ligue 1, the best that Larguet's men - who sit seventh - can now hope for is a fifth-placed finish after previous hopes of title glory.

Last week's enthralling win over Nice ended a three-game losing streak on home soil for Marseille, although they are yet to keep a clean sheet at the Orange Velodrome all season, so Lyon will be licking their lips at the prospect of a goal-fest against their underperforming rivals this weekend.

Lyon coach Rudi Garcia pictured on February 19, 2021© Reuters

A catastrophic performance from Brest goalkeeper Sebastien Cibois helped Lyon march to victory against Les Pirates last time out, as the 22-year-old kicked off an error-strewn cameo by allowing Lucas Paqueta to nick the ball off him and poke home within the opening 10 minutes.

After Houssem Aouar had doubled Lyon's tally, Cibois proceeded to bring down Memphis Depay in the area, and the Dutchman made no mistake from 12 yards to put Lyon in control, although Brest struck in the second 45 through Brendan Chardonnet and Irvin Cardona to set up a nervy finale at the Stade Francis-Le Ble.

Nevertheless, Les Gones ultimately returned to winning ways and successfully recovered from a shock defeat to Montpellier HSC the weekend before, and Lille - who boast an identical goal difference of +30 - remain three points clear of Rudi Garcia's title-chasers.

No team in the French top flight has notched up as many goals as Lyon have on the road, with Garcia's men striking 26 times on unfamiliar territory this term, although Tino Kadewere and Karl Toko Ekambi's form has slightly tailed off in recent weeks - a potential point of concern for Garcia and his previously formidable attacking trio.

The Lyon faithful will demand nothing less than a convincing derby victory this weekend, especially considering the fact that the visitors are on an 11-game unbeaten away run in the league - winning seven of their last eight on rival turf - with Manchester United's record of 19 away matches without defeat the only better record in the top five European leagues.

Aouar and Payet netted in a 1-1 draw in the first Choc des Olympiques of the season back in October, although Marseille have prevailed just twice in their last 20 league meetings with Les Gones.

Marseille Ligue 1 form: LDLDWD
Marseille form (all competitions): DLWDWD

Lyon Ligue 1 form: WWWWLW
Lyon form (all competitions): WWWWLW


Team News

Marseille attacker Florian Thauvin pictured in September 2018© Reuters

Hiroki Sakai has been handed a two-game ban following his late red card in the draw with Nantes, so Pol Lirola will return to the first XI on the right-hand side of defence.

Sakai is joined on the naughty step by Dario Benedetto - serving the third and final game of his suspension after a sending off against Bordeaux - while Valentin Rongier completes a trio of banned players for an accumulation of bookings.

The injury-plagued Jordan Amavi has been ruled out of this one by Larguet, but Florian Thauvin and Arkadiusz Milik are both back in the fold after missing out against Nantes.

In terms of injuries, Lyon only have experienced defender Marcelo to worry about, and it remains to be seen if any risks will be taken on the Brazilian following his return to training.

Sinaly Diomande is therefore likely to continue in the heart of defence for now, while Maxwel Cornet will hope to force his way back into the team over Mattia De Sciglio.

Kadewere was benched by Garcia for the trip to Brest, and with Aouar finding the back of the net from the left-hand side last time out, Garcia has a big call to make in the final third.

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Lirola, Gonzalez, Caleta-Car, Nagatomo; Kamara, Gueye; Khaoui, Payet, Thauvin; Milik

Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Dubois, Denayer, Diomande, Cornet; Mendes, Guimaraes, Paqueta; Toko Ekambi, Depay, Aouar


SM words green background

We say: Marseille 1-2 Lyon

Marseille will be determined to give a good account of themselves before the much-admired Sampaoli takes the reins, and they would love nothing more than to get one over their bitter rivals to kickstart an upturn in fortunes. However, Lyon's prowess on the road cannot be understated, and with Les Gones desperate to keep the pressure on league leaders Lille, we are backing a narrow away win in this pulsating derby.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Marseille win it was 2-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.


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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG30209173264769
2MonacoMonaco30177656381858
3Brest30158744291553
4Lille301410643261752
5Nice3013983324948
6Lens30137103932746
7Rennes30119104436842
8Marseille30101194537841
9Lyon30125133949-1041
10Reims30117123741-440
11Toulouse30910113639-337
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier30910113842-436
13StrasbourgStrasbourg3099123341-836
14NantesNantes3094172848-2031
15Metz3085173149-1829
16Le HavreLe Havre30610142738-1128
17Lorient3068163659-2326
18Clermont30410162149-2822


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