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Marseille
Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 4, 2021 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Lazio logo

Marseille
2 - 2
Lazio

Milik (33' pen.), Payet (82')
Rongier (79'), Harit (86'), Payet (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Anderson (45+7'), Immobile (49')
Acerbi (32'), Pedro (36'), Immobile (44'), Anderson (70')

Preview: Marseille vs. Lazio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Marseille and Lazio will aim to make this week's Europa League contest a better watch for the neutrals when they reconvene at the Orange Velodrome for Thursday's Group E contest.

The two continental giants played out a drab goalless stalemate on matchday three and are separated by one point in the rankings at the midway point.


Match preview

Marseille head coach Jorge Sampaoli pictured on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Having seemingly lost their magic early-season touch, Marseille's struggles to make the net ripple in Europe are well-documented, and Jorge Sampaoli could not inspire his side to victory over Lazio amid their barren goalscoring run.

Over the past six weeks, Les Olympiens have also failed to score against Angers, Galatasaray, Lille and Paris Saint-Germain, and they had to rely on a 25tth-minute Cengiz Under strike to get over the line against newly-promoted Clermont in Ligue 1 at the weekend.

Marseille may be undefeated in the 2021-22 Europa League, but a record of three stalemates from their opening three contests sees Sampaoli's side sit third, which would see them drop down to the unfancied Europa Conference League by the close of play in the group stage.

However, Marseille can take solace in the fact that they welcome Lazio to the Orange Velodrome unbeaten in five across all competitions - conceding just twice in that solid run - and with all three points enough to see them leapfrog the Italian giants into second, Sampaoli's side would choose no better time to rediscover their clinical edge.

Lazio coach Maurizio Sarri reacts on September 30, 2021© Reuters

Lazio's clash with Marseille did not produce a flurry of goals that several expected, but the Biancocelesti's battle with Atalanta BC did, as the two sides ultimately settled on a share of the spoils following a four-goal stalemate in Saturday's Serie A battle.

Twice Lazio went ahead through Pedro and Ciro Immobile, and twice they were pegged back by Duvan Zapata and Marten de Roon - the latter netting his side's second in the fourth minute of second half injury time - as Maurizio Sarri witnessed his side throw two points away in dismal fashion.

The Italian giants did see off Lokomotiv Moscow with ease on matchday two of the Europa League, but failure to beat Marseille and defeat to Galatasaray leaves the second-placed Biancocelesti three points adrift of the latter and at risk of missing out on an expected first-placed finish in Group E.

Lazio's inconsistent nature has bedevilled them majorly since the start of October - chalking up just two wins from their last six games in all competitions - and Sarri's side are winless in their last six away games before a journey to the ever-hostile Orange Velodrome.

Marseille Europa League form:
  • D
  • D
  • D

Marseille form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W

Lazio Europa League form:
  • L
  • W
  • D

Lazio form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D



Team News

Lazio's Sergej Milinkovic-Savic celebrates scoring their third goal with teammates on October 16, 2021© Reuters

Marseille boss Sampaoli has few injury and suspension concerns to work around for Thursday's game, but Boubacar Kamara, Dimitri Payet and Valentin Rongier are all one booking away from a ban.

Luan Peres has shifted to the left-hand side of a back four with a recent change in shape for Sampaoli, who opted to start Payet on the bench at Clermont but will surely reintroduce the 34-year-old from the opening whistle here.

Duje Caleta-Car and Arkadiusz Milik will also hope to force their way back into the first XI here, while Rongier is the hosts' only injury doubt after missing the Clermont win with adductor pain.

Meanwhile, Lazio are also very well-stocked for this crunch match, with midfielder Mattia Zaccagni (knee) the only absentee for Sarri to work around this week.

Danilo Cataldi featured from the first whistle against Atalanta, but Lucas Leiva and Toma Basic are knocking on the door for recalls in an otherwise settled XI from Sarri, with Immobile, Pedro and Felipe Anderson once again forming the attacking triumvirate.

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Lirola, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Kamara; Under, Guendouzi, Gerson, Payet; Milik

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Lazzari, Acerbi, Felipe, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto; Pedro, Immobile, Anderson


SM words green background

We say: Marseille 1-1 Lazio

With only three goals scored and two conceded between them in the Europa League between them so far, sparks may not fly at the Orange Velodrome, but both managers will be desperate for their sides to consign their drab matchday three affair to history.

Marseille's new-found defensive resilience and home advantage will work in their favour, but we still expect an inconsistent Lazio to do enough to come away with a point as their winless streak on the road continues.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 52.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 22.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Marseille vs Lazio

Marseille
50.7%
Draw
18.3%
Lazio
31.0%
71
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