Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Malta had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Malta win was 1-0 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.