Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 15, 2024 at 2pm UK

Bingu National Stadium

Malawi
0 - 1
Senegal

Lameck (43'), Chembezi (72'), Banega Aaron (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mane (90+6')
Jackson (59'), Gueye (72'), Koulibaly (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Senegal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Senegal 4-0 Malawi
Friday, October 11 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Senegal

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Senegal 4-0 Malawi
Friday, October 11 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 57.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 17.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.05%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Malawi win it was 1-0 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Senegal in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Senegal.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Senegal
17.68% ( 0.2)	24.85% ( 0.19)	57.47% ( -0.39)

Both teams to score 42.72% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.27% (

-0.38)

57.73% (

0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.52% (

-0.3)

78.47% (

0.3)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.44% (

0.03)

46.56% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.85% (

0.02)

82.15% (

-0.03)

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.94% (

-0.3)

20.05% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.72% (

-0.49)

52.27% (

0.48)

Score Analysis

Malawi 17.68%

Senegal 57.47%

Draw 24.84%

Malawi	Draw	Senegal
1-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.31% Total : 17.68%	1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.52% Total : 24.84%	0-1 @ 15% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 12.05% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 6.46% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 4.93% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 2.59% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.35% Total : 57.47%