Title-chasing Lille welcome relegation-threatened Dijon to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Sunday afternoon for a showdown in Ligue 1.
The hosts scraped a vital 1-0 victory over Rennes in their most recent outing, whereas Dijon's survival prospects took a huge blow with a 3-2 defeat to Lorient.
Match preview
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Lille navigated a tricky Rennes test with professionalism and aplomb as the in-form Jonathan David struck the only goal of the game in the 16th minute in a significant boost to Les Dogues' hopes of Ligue 1 glory.
Christophe Galtier's side have taken advantage of Lyon's slip-ups to leapfrog their title rivals in the table, although reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain will not be dethroned without a fight and Lille sit behind Mauricio Pochettino's men on goal difference after 21 matches.
Should Lyon see off Bordeaux on Friday evening, Lille would be knocked down to third before they take to the field on Sunday, but having won their last three on the bounce in the top flight, Galtier's men will certainly be expected to make it a quartet of successive victories over Dijon.
However, each of Les Dogues' last four wins in Ligue 1 has only been by a solitary goal, although it is no surprise that their goalscoring habits have been hampered with star man Burak Yilmaz nursing a calf problem.
A shock 2-1 defeat to Angers on January 6 remains the only time that Lille have lost at home in any competition during the 2020-21 campaign, and with just 15 goals conceded in the top flight, PSG are the sole team who have shipped fewer so far.
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In stark contrast, Dijon's four-game unbeaten run was ended in heartbreaking fashion against fellow strugglers Lorient, who returned to the pitch after suffering a devastating coronavirus outbreak earlier this month.
With the tie delicately poised at 2-2 deep into injury time, Lorient defender Andreaw Gravillon saw his header saved by Anthony Racioppi, but the Dijon goalkeeper then proceeded to slip over the line with the ball still clutched in his hands.
It was a cruel blow for a Dijon side who have undoubtedly become more resilient under David Linares, but the bottom half of the table is now tightly congested as Les Hiboux are level on 15 points with Lorient and Nimes - the latter of whom ended their winless run with victory at Marseille last time out.
Furthermore, Lorient and Nimes have both played a game fewer than Dijon, although the visitors' only two victories this season have come away from home and they had not lost in five on unfamiliar territory before Wednesday's defeat.
However, 15 goals scored is the fewest in the league and it would take nothing short of a miracle for Dijon to walk away from the Stade Pierre-Mauroy with something to show for their efforts, as Lille have won all five meetings with Les Hiboux on their own turf.
Lille Ligue 1 form: DWLWWW
Dijon Ligue 1 form: LWDDDL
Team News
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Yilmaz is not expected to return from injury for another couple of weeks, so the strike partnership of David and Yusuf Yazici will remain unchanged for now.
Galtier's midfield options have been boosted with the return of Xeka from suspension, but with Renato Sanches now raring to go again, the former Bayern Munich man could get the nod over his compatriot.
Jonathan Ikone and Domagoj Bradaric could force their way into the first XI after being benched against Rennes, while Zeki Celik's return at right-back has eased Galtier's concerns with Jeremy Pied still injured.
Dijon's infirmary is almost empty ahead of this game, with Anibal Chala and Yassine Benzia the only concerns for Linares at this moment in time.
The highly-rated Mounir Chouiar has struggled for starts as of late, but he could return to the fold this week over Frederic Sammaritano.
Lille possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Bradaric; Ikone, Andre, Sanches, Bamba; David, Yazici
Dijon possible starting lineup:
Racioppi; Boey, Manga, Coulibaly, Muzinga; Ndong, Cheikh; Ebimbe, Celina, Chouiar; Balde
We say: Lille 2-0 Dijon
Dijon have not been a side to ship many goals under Linares, but Lorient putting three past them after recovering from a major COVID-19 cluster showed that Les Hiboux' defence is not impenetrable. The absence of Yilmaz continues to be a big blow for Lille, but the hosts still have too much quality at all ends of the pitch and should record a straightforward win over Linares's men this weekend.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 66.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Dijon had a probability of 12.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.64%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Dijon win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lille in this match.
