Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Valenciennes had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Valenciennes win was 1-0 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pau would win this match.