Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Pau had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.