Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 49.83%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.