Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 47.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Clermont had a probability of 26.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Clermont win it was 0-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.