Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 38.01%. A draw had a probability of 31.2% and a win for Valenciennes had a probability of 30.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.74%) and 2-1 (7.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.12%), while for a Valenciennes win it was 0-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bastia in this match.