Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 60.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 18.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.01%) and 0-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 2-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.