Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 43.38%. A win for Rennes had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.54%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Rennes win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.