Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 46.38%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 30.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.08%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.