Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.67%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Monaco win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.