Liga MX | Gameweek 5
Feb 3, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Club Leon

Toluca
4 - 1
Club Leon

Dominguez (17'), Pereira (24'), Araujo (30'), Vega (86')
Ruiz (45'), Garcia (48'), Angulo (79')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Lopez (47')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Club Leon.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toluca

All competitions
Last Game: Guadalajara 3-2 Toluca
Wednesday, January 31 at 3.05am in Liga MX

Club Leon

All competitions
Liga MX
Last Game: Mazatlan 2-2 Club Leon
Wednesday, January 31 at 1am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for Club Leon had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Club Leon win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawClub Leon
50.18% (0.295 0.3)22.88% (-0.065999999999999 -0.07)26.94% (-0.223 -0.22)
Both teams to score 60.74% (0.038999999999994 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.21% (0.141 0.14)39.79% (-0.138 -0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.86% (0.147 0.15)62.14% (-0.144 -0.14)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.95% (0.157 0.16)16.05% (-0.154 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.58% (0.288 0.29)45.42% (-0.284 -0.28)
Club Leon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.36% (-0.087000000000003 -0.09)27.64% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.81% (-0.114 -0.11)63.18% (0.118 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 50.18%
    Club Leon 26.94%
    Draw 22.87%
TolucaDrawClub Leon
2-1 @ 9.55% (0.014999999999999 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.12% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.42% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 5.82% (0.04 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.53% (0.043 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.74% (0.017 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.66% (0.032 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.07% (0.03 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.71% (0.017 0.02)
5-1 @ 0.97% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 50.18%
1-1 @ 10.43% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 6.14% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-0 @ 4.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 22.87%
1-2 @ 6.71% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-1 @ 5.71% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.67% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.88% (-0.025 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.63% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.57% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.93% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 26.94%

Head to Head
Oct 22, 2023 12am
Gameweek 13
Club Leon
1-0
Toluca
Lopez (39')
Mena (67')

Morales (45+3'), Lopez (75'), Baeza (87')
Dominguez (83')
Jan 29, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 4
Toluca
0-0
Club Leon
Jul 27, 2022 3.05am
Gameweek 5
Club Leon
0-1
Toluca
Ambriz (17'), Montes (27'), Di Yorio (36'), Rodriguez (90+6')
Ambriz (53')
Navarro (26'), Sierra (27')
May 2, 2022 2.06am
Gameweek 17
Club Leon
4-4
Toluca
Davila (18'), Mena (23'), Meneses (37'), Barreiro (90+3')
Gonzalez (14'), Fernandez (26'), Rodriguez (33' og.), Canelo (58')
Huerta (32'), Garcia (85')
Oct 31, 2021 6pm
Gameweek 16
Toluca
0-0
Club Leon
Vanegas (2')
Tesillo (27'), Gigliotti (87')