Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos Laguna would win this match.