Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pumas win with a probability of 39.96%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 35.99% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pumas win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.44%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 2-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.