Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 65.1%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 13.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.14%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Cruz Azul win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monterrey would win this match.