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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33
Apr 20, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stade Felix Bollaert
Montpellier

Lens
2 - 0
Montpellier

Costa (37'), Ganago (75')
Costa (70')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Lens vs. Montpellier HSC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Lens, who sit in seventh place, will look to continue their push for the European places when they play host to mid-table Montpellier HSC on Wednesday.

The hosts have won three of their last four games, while La Paillade have been victorious in just one of their previous seven matches.


Match preview

Lens' Przemys?aw Frankowski celebrates scoring their fourth goal with teammates on October 24, 2021© Reuters

The hosts missed out on European qualification by just a single point last season, and all the signs suggest that it will be a close-run thing once again this season with seventh-placed Lens currently three points adrift of Strasbourg, who sit in fifth position.

Les Sang et Or have seemingly found form at just the right time, collecting nine points from their last four matches, while they have the chance to claim a third consecutive victory on Wednesday.

Nice were brushed aside by a 3-0 scoreline before Lens edged past their local rivals Lille in the Derby du Nord at the weekend, with strikes from Przemyslaw Frankowski and Arnaud Kalimuendo giving Lens a two-goal lead, and though Xeka pulled a goal back before the break, Lille could not prevent Franck Haise's side from claiming all three points.

That result represented the third win that Lens have picked up over their bitter rivals this season, but rather than celebrate their derby day success, Les Sang et Or must remain laser-focused as they aim to beat Montpellier at home for the first time since 2010.

The hosts will believe that they have the firepower to overcome Wednesday's opponents after scoring three goals in each of their last two home matches.

Montpellier's Stephy Mavididi celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on October 17, 2021© Reuters

The visitors currently find themselves in mid-table obscurity, with nine points separating them from the top five, while they enjoy a 13-point cushion to the bottom three.

At the turn of the year, Montepellier were sat in a lofty fifth position, but a poor run of results in 2022 has seen what promised to be a successful campaign slowly peter out as Montpellier began to slip down the Ligue 1 table.

La Paillade have only managed to collect 11 points in the current calendar year - only three Ligue 1 teams have picked up fewer points in 2022 - while they enter Wednesday's contest without a win in their last three matches.

Brest edged out Montpellier by a 2-1 scoreline before they lost 2-0 to Marseille, while they played out a goalless draw against Reims in their most recent fixture.

Those three results highlight the difficulties that Montpellier have faced in the second half of the season, particularly in the final third, with their 13 league games in 2022 yielding just 11 goals, but if they can find their shooting boots on Wednesday, the visitors could claim a league double over their opponents after winning the reverse fixture 1-0.

Lens Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Montpellier HSC Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Lens midfielder Cheick Doucoure in action in October 2021© Reuters

Corentin Jean is expected to be on the bench for the hosts after he returned to the matchday squad on Saturday following an injury layoff.

Lens will once again be without the suspended Massadio Haidara, while Cheick Doucoure will be available after serving a one-match suspension, which could result in Patrick Berg dropping down to the bench.

Kalimuendo will continue to partner Florian Sotoca in the front two and the 20-year-old enters the contest in confident mood after scoring three goals in his last two matches.

As for the visitors, they have no new injury issues, although they are still missing Thibault Tamas and Pedro Mendes, who both remain sidelined.

Despite keeping a clean sheet at the weekend, Dimitry Bertaud is expected to drop down to the bench, with Jonas Omlin likely to return between the posts following his one-match suspension, while Mihailo Ristic is suspended for the contest.

Olivier Dall'Oglio may be tempted to bring fresh legs into the midfield and if he chooses to do so, Joris Chotard may be presented with a starting spot.

Lens possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Medina, Danso, Gradit; Clauss, Fofana, Costa, Doucoure, Frankowski; Kalimuendo, Sotoca

Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Souquet, Sakho, Esteve, Cozza; Ferri, Chotard; Mollet, Savanier, Mavididi; Wahi


SM words green background

We say: Lens 2-1 Montpellier HSC

Buoyed by a derby victory, Lens will carry momentum into Wednesday's contest, and we think the motivation of a top-five finish will inspire them to victory over a Montpellier side who are experiencing a poor run of form after losing two of their last three matches.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Ben Sully

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 64.97%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 15.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Lens in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Lens.


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Game History

How you voted: Lens vs Montpellier

Lens
82.8%
Draw
6.9%
Montpellier HSC
10.3%
29
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Marseille's Gerson celebrates scoring their first goal with Matteo Guendouzi on April 7, 2022
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG14104037112634
2Marseille1492331171429
3MonacoMonaco1492324121229
4Lille1475224141026
5Lyon147432617925
6Nice146532617923
7Lens146531712523
8Auxerre146262121020
9Reims145452018219
10Toulouse145361516-118
11Brest145182026-616
12Rennes144281820-214
13NantesNantes143561620-414
14StrasbourgStrasbourg143562227-514
15Angers143471424-1013
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne144191132-2113
17Le HavreLe Havre1440101126-1512
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1422101336-238


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