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West Ham logo
Premier League | Gameweek 27
Mar 8, 2021 at 8pm UK
London Stadium
Leeds logo

West Ham
2 - 0
Leeds

Lingard (21'), Dawson (28')
Lingard (79')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Phillips (49')

Preview: West Ham United vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Premier League clash between West Ham United and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Top-four chasing West Ham United will be looking to return to winning ways in the Premier League when they welcome Leeds United to the London Stadium on Monday night.

The Hammers are currently sixth in the table, two points behind fourth-placed Chelsea, while Leeds occupy 11th position, having collected 35 points from their 26 league games in 2020-21.


Match preview

Declan Rice celebrates scoring for West Ham United against Sheffield United in the Premier League on February 15, 2021© Reuters

There is no question that West Ham are enjoying an excellent campaign, picking up 45 points from their 26 matches to sit sixth in the table, just two points behind fourth-placed Chelsea with a game in hand.

The Hammers will certainly be wary of suffering another defeat on Monday, though, as they are only three points clear of eighth-placed Tottenham Hotspur, while Aston Villa in ninth are only six points behind the Hammers, and Dean Smith's side still have at least one game in hand over the teams around them.

West Ham overcame Sheffield United and Tottenham in back-to-back home games last month but suffered a 2-1 defeat away to the runaway leaders Manchester City on February 27.

David Moyes's side were not in action during the week, which saw them slip out of the top four, and they could be five points behind Chelsea by the time that they take to the field for this match, with the Blues hosting fifth-placed Everton early on Monday evening.

The Hammers have the second-best home record in the league this season, picking up 24 points from 13 matches, while they beat Leeds 2-1 in the reverse match at Elland Road back in December.

Leeds United's Stuart Dallas celebrates scoring their second goal with Luke Ayling and teammates on February 23, 2021© Reuters

Leeds, meanwhile, will enter the match off the back of a 1-0 home defeat to Aston Villa last weekend, with Anwar El Ghazi's early strike proving to be the difference between the two sides.

The Whites have won 11, drawn two and lost 13 of their 26 league matches this season to collect 35 points, which has left them in 11th position in the table ahead of this weekend's fixtures.

Marcelo Bielsa's side are 12 points clear of the relegation zone and will believe that they are capable of pushing into the top half of the division, particularly as they have won as many matches as Arsenal.

Leeds have won six and lost seven of their 13 away Premier League games this term, and Monday's clash will be the first time that they have visited West Ham in England's top flight since November 2002.

The Whites have only actually lost one of their last 10 meetings with the London side in all competitions, winning three of the last four Premier League games between the two sides.

West Ham United Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L

West Ham United form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

Leeds United midfielder Kalvin Phillips pictured on January 10, 2021© Reuters

West Ham will again be without the services of Arthur Masuaku, Angelo Ogbonna and Andriy Yarmolenko through injury, while Ryan Fredericks, Darren Randolph and Lukasz Fabianski are all doubts.

Moyes is hopeful that first-choice goalkeeper Fabianski will recover from an arm injury in time for the contest, particularly as number two Randolph is now struggling with a hip issue.

The home side could revert back to a four-man defence for this match, with Ben Johnson dropping out, allowing Jarrod Bowen to join Jesse Lingard, Michail Antonio and Pablo Fornals in the forward areas.

As for Leeds, Robin Koch and Adam Forshaw are still unavailable for selection, while Kalvin Phillips, Rodrigo Moreno, Jamie Shackleton and Ian Poveda remain doubts.

Rodrigo, Poveda and Gaetano Berardi featured for the team's Under-23s side on Friday evening, but it would be a surprise to see the trio involved here due to the quick turnaround.

Phillips is thought to have a 50% chance of returning for the contest at this stage but could ultimately just miss out, with Pascal Struijk shaking off a knock to feature in the middle of the park.

Raphinha has been excellent for the Whites this term and will again feature in the final third of the field, while there should also be starts for Jack Harrison and Ezgjan Alioski.

West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Fabianski; Coufal, Dawson, Diop, Cresswell; Soucek, Rice; Bowen, Lingard, Fornals; Antonio

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Cooper, Alioski; Raphinha, Struijk, Klich, Dallas, Harrison; Bamford


SM words green background

We say: West Ham United 2-1 Leeds United

Leeds are a very difficult team to call as they struggle for consistency on a week-to-week basis. The Whites are certainly more than capable of picking up a positive result at the London Stadium, but West Ham have been excellent this season, and we fancy the Hammers to secure another win to boost their top-four hopes.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 43.02%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.54%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.


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Leeds United midfielder Kalvin Phillips pictured on January 10, 2021
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