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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 36
May 15, 2021 at 12.30pm UK
Turf Moor
Leeds logo
Burnley
0 - 4
Leeds

Westwood (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Klich (44'), Harrison (60'), Rodrigo (77', 79')
Phillips (63')

Preview: Burnley vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Burnley and Leeds United will both be looking to string together successive victories when they face off at Turf Moor on Saturday lunchtime.

The Clarets beat Fulham 2-0 on Monday to confirm their Premier League safety, while Leeds saw off Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 last time out to move up to 10th.


Match preview

Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured on May 10, 2021© Reuters

Not that it has been a serious worry for a number of weeks now, but Sean Dyche will be pleased that Burnley finally made certain of another campaign of a top-flight football.

Ashley Westwood and Chris Wood were on target in the final 10 minutes of the first half at Craven Cottage to condemn Fulham to relegation.

It is the first time in Premier League history that all three relegation spots have been decided with as many as three games of the season still to play.

That means the pressure is fully off Burnley heading into games with Leeds and Liverpool at Turf Moor, before concluding their campaign away at Sheffield United.

The aim for Dyche's 15th-placed side now will be to finish as high as possible, with 12th the best that they can realistically hope for.

Burnley have scored six times without conceding in their last two away games, having also thumped Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-0, but it has been a different story on their own patch.

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa on May 8, 2021.© Reuters

The Clarets have won none of their last eight league matches at Turf Moor - their joint-longest winless home run in the English top flight - losing back-to-back games 2-1 there.

Leeds will be looking to extend their opponents' winless home run this weekend, though they lost 2-0 to Brighton & Hove Albion last time out on their travels.

That is the only real blemish for Marcelo Bielsa's men over the last two months, however, having won four and drawn three of their last eight matches.

What makes that all the more impressive is that the Whites have faced Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham during that run.

Stuart Dallas, Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo all netted in the win over Spurs last weekend - a victory that moved United into the top half, where they will now be aiming to stay.

Leeds won this season's reverse fixture 1-0 at Elland Road and are looking to complete their first league double over Burnley since the 2011-12 Championship campaign.

Burnley Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W


Team News

Patrick Bamford celebrates scoring for Leeds United against Burnley in the Premier League on December 27, 2020© Reuters

Leeds have been boosted by the return to fitness of captain Liam Cooper, while Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips returned from injury as substitutes in the win against Tottenham.

Cooper has not been used since being sent off against Man City more than a month ago, and it is likely that Bielsa will go with Pascal Struijk alongside Diego Llorente here.

Adam Forshaw, Joe Gelhardt and Helder Costa all remain sidelined for the visitors, with the latter being ruled out until pre-season.

Bamford netted a pen in December's win at Elland Road and could become the first Whites player to score home and away against Burnley in a season since Peter Lorimer in 1974-75.

Burnley only have a couple of injury issues to contend with as Kevin Long and Robbie Brady remain sidelined for this clash.

Dyche may look to rotate his side slightly with safety now guaranteed, which could see the likes of Ashley Barnes, James Rodriguez and Johann Berg Gudmundsson recalled.

Former Leeds striker Wood seems certain to retain his place up top, meanwhile, as he looks to build on a return of eight goals in his last eight matches.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; Brownhill, Cork, Westwood, McNeil; Wood, Vydra

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Struijk, Alioski; Raphinha, Dallas, Phillips, Roberts, Harrison; Bamford


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 0-2 Leeds United

Burnley have gone eight league games without a win at Turf Moor, while Leeds have won four of their last eight on their travels.

United have also won their last three top-flight meetings against the Clarets, a run in which we can see them extending this weekend.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.86%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 26.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.47%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Burnley vs Leeds

Burnley
23.5%
Draw
11.8%
Leeds United
64.7%
187
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8Coventry CityCoventry3715121059431657
9Preston North EndPreston37168134954-556
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14Bristol City38138174245-347
15Swansea CitySwansea381210164858-1046
16Millwall381110173650-1443
17Blackburn RoversBlackburn38119185164-1342
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth381011175462-841
19Stoke CityStoke38118193553-1841
20Queens Park RangersQPR381010183650-1440
21Birmingham CityBirmingham38109194259-1739
22Huddersfield TownHuddersfield38815154261-1939
23Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38115223061-3138
24Rotherham UnitedRotherham38311243077-4720

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