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Leeds logo
Championship | Gameweek 42
Jul 9, 2020 at 5pm UK
Elland Road
Stoke logo
Leeds
5 - 0
Stoke
Klich (45' pen.), Costa (47'), Cooper (57'), Hernandez (72'), Bamford (90+3')
White (4'), Dallas (50')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Martins Indi (59'), Cousins (63')

Preview: Leeds United vs. Stoke City – prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Championship clash between Leeds United and Stoke City, including team news and predicted lineups.

Leeds United will be aiming to cement their position atop the Championship rankings when they welcome Stoke City to Elland Road for Thursday's showdown.

Stoke managed to distance themselves from the relegation zone with their first victory of the restart last time out, although the Potters are only two points clear of the bottom three as things stand.


Match preview

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa pictured on July 4, 2020© Reuters

Following on from their disappointing draw with the Championship's basement side Luton Town, Leeds managed to return to winning ways as they enjoyed a 3-1 triumph over Blackburn Rovers on Saturday.

Goals from Patrick Bamford, Kalvin Phillips and Mateusz Klich paved the way for the Whites to record their 23rd league victory of the season, and Marcelo Bielsa's side currently sit one point clear of second-placed West Bromwich Albion with five games remaining.

The Baggies can temporarily leapfrog Leeds into first should they take all three points against playoff hopefuls Derby County the day before, but barring any disasters as the season draws to a close, Leeds can start making preparations for an automatic return to the big time.

The Whites have a relatively pleasant fixture list to contend with as the campaign enters its closing stages, with Bielsa's side still to face relegation-threatened Barnsley and Charlton Athletic as well as top-six chasing Derby and Swansea City.

Stoke are certainly facing an uphill task to spoil the Leeds party on their own turf - the hosts have won four out of their last five at Elland Road and have only shipped one goal in that time.

Stoke City manager Michael O'Neill pictured on July 4, 2020© Reuters

The Potters have every reason to be optimistic about their fortunes heading into the midweek clash, however, as Stoke finally managed to get three points on the board as they swept aside 23rd-placed Barnsley at the weekend.

Michael O'Neill's men had shared the spoils with Reading and suffered defeats against Middlesbrough and Middlesbrough upon the league's resumption, but Stoke have now given themselves some much-needed breathing space as they rose to 18th in the table on Saturday.

Of course, the Potters could find themselves back down in the bottom three by Thursday depending on results earlier in the week, but that eventuality seems unlikely given that the four teams capable of overtaking Stoke are all facing away matches in this round of fixtures.

O'Neill's men still have to take on playoff hopefuls Nottingham Forest and Brentford in their final couple of games, but the Potters can feel confident about their meetings with two out-of-form sides in Bristol City and Birmingham City in the next week.

However, Stoke's away form is a major cause for concern for O'Neill as the Potters have only picked up two wins in their last 13 on the road, although their most recent away victory was against Leeds' title rivals West Brom in January.

Goals from Bamford, Stuart Dallas and Ezgjan Alioski set Leeds on their way to a comfortable 3-0 victory at the bet365 Stadium when the two sides faced off in the reverse fixture.

Leeds United Championship form: WWLWDW

Stoke City Championship form: DWDLLW


Team News

Stoke City players celebrate Tyrese Campbell's goal against Barnsley on July 4, 2020© Reuters

Leeds have no fresh injury concerns heading into the clash with Stoke.

Helder Costa and Dallas – the latter of whom had not missed a single league game this season prior to last weekend - both sat out the win over Blackburn but Bielsa has confirmed that the duo should be able to play a part in midweek.

The return of Costa and Dallas would see Alioski and Barry Douglas drop down to the bench, while Adam Forshaw and Kiko Casilla remain out through injury and suspension respectively.

O'Neill is also expected to keep changes to a minimum following his side's impressive victory against Barnsley.

Tom Ince may have done enough to earn a recall after bagging Stoke's fourth off the bench on Saturday, and Joe Allen is the only confirmed absentee for the Potters.

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Cooper, White, Dallas; Phillips; Costa, Klich, Roberts, Harrison; Bamford

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Butland; Smith, Chester, Batth, Martins Indi; Cousins, Clucas; Campbell, Powell, Ince; Vokes


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Leeds United 2-0 Stoke City

Stoke were full value for their stellar victory over Barnsley last time out, but an away match against a title-chasing Leeds side is a completely different kettle of fish. The hosts have shown that they are not immune to the occasional slip-up, but we are expecting Bielsa's side to continue their promotion charge with a comfortable victory over the Potters on Thursday evening.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 16.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.


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Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa pictured on July 4, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds38257670284282
2Leicester CityLeicester37264774334182
3Ipswich TownIpswich38249580493181
4Southampton36227773472673
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381991059362366
6Norwich CityNorwich381871369541561
7Hull City371610115346758
8Coventry CityCoventry3715121059431657
9Preston North EndPreston37168134954-556
10Middlesbrough38166165352154
11Cardiff CityCardiff38165174351-853
12Sunderland38146184845348
13Watford381212145351248
14Bristol City38138174245-347
15Swansea CitySwansea381210164858-1046
16Millwall381110173650-1443
17Blackburn RoversBlackburn38119185164-1342
18Plymouth ArgylePlymouth381011175462-841
19Stoke CityStoke38118193553-1841
20Queens Park RangersQPR381010183650-1440
21Birmingham CityBirmingham38109194259-1739
22Huddersfield TownHuddersfield38815154261-1939
23Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38115223061-3138
24Rotherham UnitedRotherham38311243077-4720

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