Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 60.91%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Colorado Rapids had a probability of 19.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.89%) and 3-1 (7.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.49%), while for a Colorado Rapids win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.