Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 59.06%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 20.87% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.7%) and 3-1 (7.05%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 1-2 (5.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.