Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 63.38%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 17.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.08%) and 1-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for a VVV-Venlo win it was 1-2 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.