Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 47.1%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 30.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.55%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Vitesse in this match.