Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.